[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 140304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140304
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-140430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1004 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IND...SERN IL AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 275...

VALID 140304Z - 140430Z

ISOLATED SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN THREAT OVER SRN IND...SERN IL AND WRN KY FOR THE NEXT 2 HOURS.
RECENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT WW 275 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 06Z.

E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SWD THROUGH SRN IND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 35-45 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET EVIDENT ON REGIONAL VWP/S WILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THIS
BOUNDARY AND MAY AID IN STRONG TO ISOLATED SVR TSTMS OVER SERN IL
AND SRN IND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE LACK OF MORE THAN 25 KTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT GIVEN MUCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER WRN KY IMPINGED
BY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/ISO SVR STORMS
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MUCINH AND
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SVR THREAT MAY BE OVER BEFORE
06Z. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND WW 275 MAY BE
CANCELLED EARLY.

..CROSBIE.. 05/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...

36648984 39118794 39828498 36538785

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