[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 310156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310156
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN INTO MIDDLE TN AND NWRN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 310156Z - 310330Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TONIGHT
FROM VICINITY OF THE MS RIVER EWD ACROSS NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN INTO
NWRN AL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

AS OF 0130Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS INTENSIFYING OVER
POINSETT..CROSS AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES IN NERN AR NEAR
INTERSECTION OF COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WAS ALSO DEEPENING FARTHER TO THE S FROM AROUND 40 NW OF
JAN TO NEAR TUP WITHIN INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION
PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 00Z JAN SOUNDING
INDICATED A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE CAP AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG/. HOWEVER...AIR
MASS DRIES CONSIDERABLY NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN PER 00Z BNA SOUNDING.

00Z NAM DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH 31/06Z WILL OCCUR NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE TN
VALLEY...SUGGESTING THAT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. STORMS MAY TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED NWD WITH EXTENT OWING TO COMPARATIVELY DRIER BOUNDARY-LAYER
AND POTENTIAL FOR DE-COUPLING. NONETHELESS...CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
MID-LEVEL JET AXIS TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

..MEAD.. 03/31/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34009050 34579068 36098973 36508922 36408805 36398727
35718670 34918687 33748746 33758804

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