[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 271707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271706
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-271800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...AL...PARTS OF NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 271706Z - 271800Z

SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS ALABAMA...NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED
SOON.

INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL ALABAMA...IN THE VICINITY OF SURFACE
TROUGH.  16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOWEST PRESSURE IS CENTERED
NORTH OF MOBILE...BUT INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE
FLORENCE/DECATUR AREAS...WHERE DEEPENING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF TEXAS...WHICH IS ALSO
PROVIDING FORCING FOR ONGOING STORMS.

THOUGH CONVECTIVELY COOLED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL
GEORGIA INTO EASTERN ALABAMA WILL PROVIDE EASTERN LIMIT...AT LEAST
NARROW SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AXIS IS DEVELOPING NEAR SURFACE
TROUGH.  WITH CONTINUED HEATING...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1500 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY...AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS
ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THIS LAYER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SHEAR
PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS/AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR DEVELOPING LOW COULD AID
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT NEAR/NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM.

..KERR.. 03/27/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...

31368772 31788802 32988788 33918776 34838716 35068610
34818549 34278526 33878501 33628515 32968546 32418593
32048630 31558688

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