[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 262242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262242
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-270045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0442 PM CST SAT MAR 26 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE TX/CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO FAR NRN MS/WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 262242Z - 270045Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST TSTMS REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS FAR NE TX/CNTRL AND SRN AR INTO FAR NRN
MS/WRN TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DOWNSTREAM OF WEST TX UPPER TROUGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME EXPECTED TO SPARK INCREASING AREAL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM NE TX TOWARD FAR NRN MS/WRN TN THIS
EVENING. NORTH OF SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE...21Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
ELEVATED MUCAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS NRN LA/NRN MS TO
250 J/KG OR LESS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AR FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND/ABOVE
850 MB. MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG SHEAR THROUGH THE
CLOUD BEARING LAYER /E.G. DEQUEEN PROFILER/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG/ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS WITH A PREDOMINANT HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE
EVENING.

..GUYER.. 03/26/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

34809279 35689113 36528957 36138884 35288873 34478942
33789087 33049248 32729398 32799494 33589513 33879474

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