[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 070831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070830
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST MON MAR 07 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL/ERN AND SRN MO/NRN AR/NE OK

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 070830Z - 071030Z

OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN OR NEAR STRONGER
CONVECTION THROUGH DAYBREAK.

EVAPORATIVE COOLING...IN LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS BELOW CLOUD BASES...IS ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...AND DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE...NEAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  THIS IS
OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE OF SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
LAYER...AND LIKELY WILL PERSIST AS LONG AS CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED.

FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG 40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET. ZONE OF STRONGER WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF THIS
RIDGE...SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY 12Z.

WITH CAP WEAKENED...IN WAKE OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
ACCELERATING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO ILLINOIS...NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS AND KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.  SUPPORTED
BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY DIGGING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT
DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK.

WHILE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS
CONDUCIVE TO HAIL...LIMITED MOISTURE LEVELS/LOW CAPE WILL CONTINUE
TO MINIMIZE SIZES.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY
LIKELY WILL REMAIN OCCASIONAL STRONG GUSTS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 03/07/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

37059591 37309457 37999306 38729175 39399012 39578919
38888769 38188785 37008863 36418966 36079102 35849314
36099511 36559643



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