[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 141658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141658
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...KY/MIDDLE TN/NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 141658Z - 141900Z

AS STORMS INITIATE AND EXPAND OVER KY AND TN THIS AFTERNOON...A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NE MS
TO WRN KY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ABOVE 2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED
WITH A WEAKENED CAP AND INCREASING ASCENT DUE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
IS HELPING STORMS TO INITIATE ACROSS WRN KY. AS ASCENT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
SWD ACROSS WRN TN AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS. UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILES...HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER MORE PERSISTENT CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/14/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

35008980 35978947 38558580 38598418 37878373 36498503
34468842 34708945

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