[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121725
TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-121930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1309
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IN/SRN OH/CNTRL AND ERN KY/MIDDLE AND ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121725Z - 121930Z

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES IS INCREASING AS
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
TORNADO WATCH...

SFC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS CENTERED JUST SW OF CKV
PER LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS/VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR. VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ALREADY IN PLACE...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER
OF 30-40 KT OBSERVED ON AREA VWP DATA. SHARPLY CURVED HODOGRAPH
STRUCTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO SR HELICITY VALUES ABOVE 200 M2/S2.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING ATTM ACROSS CNTRL KY INTO THE SRN OH VALLEY WITH A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS SRN IN/OH.

SFC TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S...WITHIN A SEMI-TROPICAL
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR CONTINUED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN AND THEREFORE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ISOLATED
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. TORNADO WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

..TAYLOR.. 06/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...

39408513 38658637 35808651 35038575 34918487 35318374
35778318 36168258 37308232 38488258 39338333 39438413

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