[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111514
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111513
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-111615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CDT MON JUL 11 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN AL/CENTRAL AND NRN GA/UPSTATE SC/FAR SWRN
NC/SRN AND SERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 111513Z - 111615Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN GA/FAR ERN AL AND
NWD TO UPSTATE SC TO PARTS OF SRN-SERN TN.  A WW MAY BE NEEDED
ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS
OVER FAR NERN MS ALONG THE TN BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
ENEWD ACROSS SRN TN INTO FAR WRN NC.  SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS/ZONES
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE CENTER OF DENNIS
ACROSS SRN/SERN TN INTO ERN GA AND SWD JUST E OF THE AL/GA BORDER.
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE
AREA OF CONCERN...WHERE THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.  AREA VWPS PER WSR-88DS SHOW
STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN GA INTO TN WITH 0-1 KM
SRH VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2...SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL ROTATION...
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND WARM FRONT.
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN AL INTO WRN/NRN GA AND
MIDDLE/ERN TN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 07/11/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...OHX...BMX...HUN...

35938424 35758322 35338235 34648183 33568210 32278280
31598383 31448476 31998532 32918550 34338579 35998682
36098539

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