[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 042241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042241
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-050015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SWRN IND...NERN AR...WRN KY AND WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 597...

VALID 042241Z - 050015Z

SQUALL LINE WITH A SERIES OF WEAKLY ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS
CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS NERN AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL AT 30-35KT.
VIL VALUES ALONG THE LINE HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE LAST HOUR AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE APEX OF ONE OF THE
BOWS...AS WELL AS SPEED OF THE LINE...WOULD SUGGEST STORMS COULD
GENERATE PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 35-50KT. A STRONGER CELL HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED ALONG AN OUTFLOW SEGMENT OVER UNION COUNTY IL...AND
ANOTHER SEGMENT OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTION WAS MOVING OVER
WILLIAMSON COUNTY IL.

ASIDE FROM THIS ACTIVITY..THE LINE WILL MOVE OUT OF WATCH 597 WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS FROM SWRN IND INTO WRN SECTIONS OF
KY/TN WAS VERY WARM AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS
IN RADAR AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA AHEAD OF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE...MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN
AREAL EXTENT.

..CARBIN.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

38228845 38278688 35098789 35189006 35229282 35709249
36369134 38298990



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