[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 042023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042022
INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT MON JUL 04 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL SWWD INTO SERN MO AND NERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 596...597...

VALID 042022Z - 042145Z

THROUGH 22-23Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL EXIST FROM E-CNTRL IL SWWD THROUGH SRN IL INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL.

AS OF 2004Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ISOLATED STORM OVER
MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CNTRL IL WITH A MORE CONTINUOUS LINE OF TSTMS
FROM ST. CLAIR COUNTY IL SWWD INTO IZARD COUNTY IN N-CNTRL AR. THE
MOULTRIE COUNTY STORM IS MOVING 240/30-35 KTS AND IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 596 BY AROUND 2130Z. MEANWHILE...NRN PORTION
OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER ST. CLAIR COUNTY IL HAS EVOLVED INTO A
BOWING STRUCTURE AND ACCELERATED EWD AT 30-35 KTS.

RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
EXISTS FROM VICINITY OF THE ST. CLAIR COUNTY STORM SWWD INTO NERN AR
WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 2000 J/KG. FARTHER N OVER CNTRL AND ERN
IL...AIR MASS IS NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE /I.E. MLCAPES OF 500-1500
J/KG/ OWING TO GREATER CLOUD COVER AND COMPARATIVELY LESS
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VAD/VWP
DISPLAYS INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL MO SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE OVERSPREADING
THIS REGION.

THROUGH 22-23Z...EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO REMAIN CAPABLE OF MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOULTRIE COUNTY
STORM WILL APPROACH ERN EDGE OF WW 596 BY 2130Z...SO CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW INTO CNTRL IND.

..MEAD.. 07/04/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

42098832 42038691 38218789 38248839 35049008 35189285
38259130 38339021 40318978 40418928



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