[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 281317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281316
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 AM CST MON FEB 28 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV AND WRN/CNTRL VA INTO WRN/CNTRL MD AND SRN
PA

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION

VALID 281316Z - 281715Z

MDT/OCNLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE WV/VA
APPALACHIANS INTO WRN MD/SRN PA THROUGH 18Z...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5
IN/HR POSSIBLE INVOF HIGHEST TERRAIN. FURTHER EAST...SOME FZRA/SLEET
SHOULD MIX IN WITH SNOW/RAIN IN A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL VA
POSSIBLY INTO CNTRL MD...MOST LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF A DAN-DCA AXIS.

AT 12Z...APPROX 993 MB SFC LOW CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST 100 NM SSW
OF HSE. AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN/MOVE NNEWD...LOW LEVEL ELY
CONVEYOR ON NRN PERIPHERY OF CYCLONE COINCIDENT WITH COUPLED UPPER
JET STRUCTURE ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UVVS ACROSS CNTRL
APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC STATES.

INVOF OF WV/VA APPALACHIANS...SUFFICIENTLY REMOVED FROM STRONGEST
WAA...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MDT/OCNLY HEAVY
WET SNOW WITH DYNAMIC LIFT COINCIDENT WITHIN DENDRITIC LAYER. ACROSS
NRN VA INTO WRN/CNTRL MD AND SRN PA...09Z RUC SUGGESTS
INITIAL/SHALLOW DRY LOW LEVELS /E.G. 12Z IAD RAOB/ WILL BE QUICKLY
SATURATED NWD INTO MRB/HGR AREAS BETWEEN 14Z-16Z AS UVVS MARKEDLY
INCREASE.

ALTHOUGH PROFILES ARE MARGINAL/TRANSITIONAL...09Z RUC SUGGESTS A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SLEET/FZRA -- MIXED WITH SNOW TO THE WEST AND
RAIN EAST -- WILL SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS CNTRL VA/CNTRL MD FROM DAN/LYH
VICINITIES TO NEAR CHO AND DCA. ALTHOUGH 12Z IAD OBSERVED RAOB
FEATURES SUB-FREEZING TEMPS THROUGH ENTIRE COLUMN /-1.5 C AT 850
MB/...AFOREMENTIONED RUC SOLUTION APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN CONTINUAL
TREND OF WARMING/ELY TRAJECTORIES OFF MILD ATLANTIC.

..GUYER.. 02/28/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

40367799 40227687 39627643 37777775 37127851 36577925
36258014 36378083 36458154 36668194 36848213 37098223
38208162 39008081 39957912



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