[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211817
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-212015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0192
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TN...NRN AL...FAR NE MS...NW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211817Z - 212015Z

CELLS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN NRN GA...SRN TN EXTENDING WWD TO
NE MS. AS THE CELLS INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. CURRENT WW WILL BE REPLACED SHORTLY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITH DEWPOINTS
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH
WARMING SFC TEMPS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 50 TO 60 KT OF 0-6 KM
SHEAR WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL STORMS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO
BE PRESENT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..BROYLES.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...

34848907 35138747 34938505 34438219 34048137 33558194
33618510 33758654 34258861



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