[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 210811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210810
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-210945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CST MON FEB 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...WRN TN...MO BOOTHEEL...EXTREME NRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 19...20...

VALID 210810Z - 210945Z

BOW ECHO MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 55 KT ACROSS PORTIONS NWRN AR MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL AS IT
CROSSES OZARKS OF NRN AR.  46 KT GUST REPORTED AT SFC STATION
SLG...44 KT AT XNA.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NEAR SEARCY/NEWTON COUNTY
LINE IN ANOTHER HOUR WHEN WW 19 EXPIRES.  WW 19 MAY NEED LOCAL
EXTENSION OR REPLACEMENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS...COVERING N-CENTRAL AR
COUNTIES IN ITS PATH FROM NEWTON EWD.  MUCAPES 1500-1800 J/KG
INDICATED OVER REGION WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING EWD WITH
THIS ACTIVITY ALL THE WAY ACROSS NRN AR...ALONG WEAK E-W ORIENTED
BOUNDARY LEFT BY EARLIER CONVECTION.

MEANWHILE...SEVERAL REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL -- AN INCH OR
LESS DIAMETER -- HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACTIVITY NOW CROSSING
SEVERAL COUNTIES OF WRN TN BETWEEN MEM-DYR.  THESE TSTMS SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING EWD 30-35 KT TOWARD N-S ORIENTED WARM FRONTAL
SEGMENT NOW ANALYZED INVOF HAYWOOD/MADISON COUNTY LINE...JUST W MKL.
 ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN LARGELY MULTICELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH
INTERMITTENT EMBEDDED ELEMENTS OF CYCLONIC SHEAR...A MORPHOLOGY
WHICH GENERALLY SHOULD CONTINUE AND WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
LOW-END SEVERE HAIL.  TSTMS ARE MOVING EWD FASTER THAN WARM FRONT
AND WILL ROSS IT INVOF MKL.  SOME BRIEF INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 10-20 NM E OF SFC WARM FRONT...WHERE LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED.
RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAVORABLE ELEVATED MUCAPE 1800 J/KG NEAR
MKL...TRENDING TO NEAR 1300 J/KG AROUND BNA.

..EDWARDS.. 02/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OHX...HUN...PAH...

34369449 36499448 36529137 34369136

34669138 36419141 36488802 34728803



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