[BNAWX] Hazardous Weather Outlook

[EMWIN Server]

FLUS44 KOHX 031048
HWOOHX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041130-
BEDFORD-BENTON-CANNON-CHEATHAM-CLAY-COFFEE-CUMBERLAND-DAVIDSON-
DEKALB-DICKSON-FENTRESS-GILES-GRUNDY-HICKMAN-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-
JACKSON-LAWRENCE-LEWIS-MACON-MARSHALL-MAURY-MONTGOMERY-OVERTON-PERRY-
PICKETT-PUTNAM-ROBERTSON-RUTHERFORD-SMITH-STEWART-SUMNER-TROUSDALE-
VAN BUREN-WARREN-WAYNE-WHITE-WILLIAMSON-WILSON-
530 AM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN MID STATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK...LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY...
BUT HAVE STARTED TO WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK. EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SLEET...OR A MIXTURE OF LIGHT SLEET AND
RAIN AT FEW LOCATIONS...UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN.

A VERY FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG MID LEVEL JET STREAK
TO PROGRESS EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REACHING THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY NOON TODAY...AND TO NEAR
JONESBORO ARKANSAS BY 7 PM THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO WEST VIRGINIA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A LEAD ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE NORTH...TO ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER BY 7 PM THIS
EVENING. ONCE THE MID STATE GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR...WIND
PROFILES...AND THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPER CELL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A PLUME OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE DURING THE
EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 60 KNOTS...WILL PUNCH NORTHWARD INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE OUT OF
NORTHERN ALABAMA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND VERY STRONG
LOW LEVEL HELICITY...IN THE LOWEST 1 TO 2 KILOMETERS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPER CELLS TO DEVELOP. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 6 PM UNTIL
AROUND 2 AM SUNDAY MORNING...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSTATE LATE TONIGHT...
BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND AGAIN THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS A COLD...BROAD UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
COUNTRY.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE ACTIVATED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.
$$
BOYD

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net