[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 151859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151859
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-152100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN IN/WRN KY/WRN INTO
MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 151859Z - 152100Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ALONG
THE LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE TN VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR A
SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHOULD A SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED THREAT BEGIN TO
EVOLVE.

TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WRN/MIDDLE TN AND FAR SRN
KY...SEEMINGLY COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM
YESTERDAYS TSTMS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SUBSEQUENT
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SE MO/NE AR/FAR SRN IL/FAR SRN
IN/WRN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF VORT MAX/MCV
OVER SRN MO.

ADJUSTED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S/LOWER 90S. MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHES WITH SWD EXTENT...WITH BLOOMFIELD MO
PROFILER DEPICTING 20-30 KT WSWLYS IN 1-6 KM LAYER.

PRIMARY HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH LARGE HAIL THREAT
MITIGATED BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS.
ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

..GUYER.. 08/15/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

36159142 37839143 38528768 38688581 36468521 35418608
35118774 35119095

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