[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 211846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211846
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WV AND CNTRL/SRN VA INTO NRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 211846Z - 212045Z

THREAT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SRN WV AND CNTRL/SRN VA INTO
NRN NC. WW NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED GIVEN EXPECTED ISOLD NATURE OF
THREAT...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

STORM CLUSTER ONGOING ACROSS ERN KY APPEARS TO BE TIED TO SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE MOVING ESE ACROSS NRN KY. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EWD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SRN WV
INTO CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF
SYNOPTIC QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING VA...AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE OWING TO PLENTIFUL INSOLATION. TEMPERATURES
IN THIS AREA HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S...WITH PROXIMITY
RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG SBCAPE WITH NEGLIGIBLE
CINH REMAINING.

IN SPITE OF AMPLE INSTABILITY...REGION DOES REMAIN SOUTH OF
RELATIVELY STRONGER BELT OF MID LEVEL FLOW /REF LWX 88D VAD AND
REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS/...AS 20-25 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. NEVERTHELESS...WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUGGESTS AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

..GUYER.. 04/21/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

37717741 37037690 36207747 35968008 35938099 36618246
37638255 38328209 37937794

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