[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121526 COR
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT TUE APR 12 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...CNTRL AND SRN IL...WRN KY...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121526Z - 121700Z

CORRECTED TO CHANGE WRN MO TO ERN MO IN DISCUSSION AREA

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST...
PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND NORTH OF THE OH RIVER...OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND POSSIBLY
RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY NOON EDT.

SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE. THIS ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP COLD CORE OCCLUDED CYCLONE CENTERED OVER IA/MO.
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S F/ AND POCKETS OF GREATER SFC HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND DIMINISHING INHIBITION ACROSS
SRN IL AND ERN MO THIS MORNING. LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE
DEEP CYCLONE COUPLED WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STORM STRUCTURE AND PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...APPEARS TO BE HAIL. SHEAR IS FCST TO DECREASE WITH TIME
AS SLACK FLOW NEAR THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY
AND THE MAINTENANCE OF LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION. THEREFORE...THE
WEAKENING SHEAR MAY NOT OCCUR SOON ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 04/12/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

39778805 40148974 40039115 39689163 38209133 36939081
36378964 36438813 36588679

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