[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062244
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0544 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/ERN AR...MO BOOTHEEL...NRN MS...FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133...

VALID 062244Z - 070015Z

PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO THREAT TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS WW 133.

22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A LOW OVER NWRN AR WITH AN OCCLUDED
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD INTO DESHA COUNTY AR...WITH A WARM FRONT
THEN EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS MS INTO WEST CENTRAL AL.  NARROW ZONE OF
MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR...IN ADVANCE OF THE SLOW EWD
MOVING UPPER TROUGH...ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING ALONG
THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY OVER THIS
REGION.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL REMAIN
BACKED TO THE ESE...GIVEN SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF UPPER TROUGH.  THIS
WILL MAINTAIN STRONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS
BOUNDARY FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...DESPITE THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY.  REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.  THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX APPROACHES THIS REGION.  GIVEN THIS UPWARD
MOTION SPREADING ATOP THE INSTABILITY AXIS...NEW STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS WW 133 THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

..PETERS.. 04/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

36549304 36538988 33798805 33819106

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