[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 062018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062018
ALZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT WED APR 06 2005

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN MS...SWRN TN...NERN AR...MO
BOOT-HEEL...S-CENTRAL MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 133...

VALID 062018Z - 062145Z

SEVERE TSTMS IN A BROKEN BAND -- INCLUDING MERGING SUPERCELL OVER
PANOLA COUNTY MS -- WILL MOVE ENEWD ACROSS SRN PORTION WW
AREA...AFFECTING MUCH OF N-CENTRAL/NERN MS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MID 60S TEMPS YIELD NEARLY SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS AND
MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITH MUCAPES 500-800 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE WITH APPROXIMATELY 300 J/KG SRH IN 0-1 KM AGL
LAYER...AND ABOUT 50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR.

FARTHER NW...GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE AS CONVECTION MOVES NEWD ACROSS NERN AR -- ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF SFC OCCLUDED FRONT.  INFLOW-LAYER AIR MASS IS SLOWLY
DESTABILIZING/RECOVERING FROM EFFECTS OF EARLIER STRATUS.
COMBINATION OF WEAK MIDLEVEL COOLING...LOW 60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND
INSOLATION WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE MLCAPES PAST 1000 J/KG AMIDST VERY
WEAK CINH.  PORTIONS S-CENTRAL MO MAY REQUIRE WW AS THIS
ACTIVITY...AND TSTMS NEAR SYNOPTIC STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER
NW...ENCOUNTER DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OZARKS.  DRY
ADVECTION BEHIND OCCLUDED/COLD FRONTS SHOULD REDUCE SEVERE POTENTIAL
THERE.

..EDWARDS.. 04/06/2005

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

36529299 36538992 33848809 33809102

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