[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 121545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121541
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-121815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SEVERE POTENTIAL/HEAVY RAIN

VALID 121541Z - 121815Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...AND WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MID/UPPER LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES
...IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.  THIS FEATURE IS NOW SLOWLY TURNING EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF STORMS...LIKELY BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE
JACKSON TN AREA DURING THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.

ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE HOPKINSVILLE KY AREA APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...
BUT NEW ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM...INTO THE VICINITY OF
DYERSBURG.  THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING CAP AS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WESTERN
TENNESSEE BEGINS TO WARM INTO THE 80S. LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE BENEATH APPROACHING CIRCULATION IS
ALREADY APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS...AND MID-LEVEL POCKET OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR MAY PROVIDE
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

GIVEN WEAKNESS OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR...
SEVERE THREAT WITH STRONGEST CELLS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED.
 HOWEVER...EXPANDING/SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY...AND THIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINS.

..KERR.. 09/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

34498969 35168980 35628991 36478943 36688881 36538775
35728751 34688801 34138924



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