[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 191208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191208
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2336
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 864...

VALID 191208Z - 191415Z

WW 864 CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. PRESENT INDICATIONS
SUGGEST CURRENT WATCH WILL NOT NEED TO BE EXTENDED PAST 13Z.

AT 1201Z...SOLID LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS E-W FROM N-CENTRAL MS TO
FAR SERN TN. BACKBUILDING ELEMENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ON WRN END OF
THE LINE NEAR TUP...ASSOCIATED WITH 40-45KT SWLY 1KM FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION PER VAD WIND PROFILE AT COLUMBUS AFB IN NERN MS.
ADDITIONALLY...REGION IS LOCATED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW REGIME DOWNSTREAM
OF SRN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL TX INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS AND CONTINUED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLOW SEWD PROPAGATION OF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED. HIGH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF
1.75" AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO WRN FLANK OF THE LINE SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2"/HR ACROSS NERN MS AND
NRN AL THROUGH LATE MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...MINIMAL COLD POOL
STRENGTH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS...WITH MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE LESSENING THREAT OF
SEVERE HAIL. PRIMARY THREAT WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING...HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING MAY RESULT IN ROBUST
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING UPWIND OF CURRENT E-W LINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

34468898 34838647 35028546 34068545 33958747 33808896



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