[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 190705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190704
KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-190830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR/WRN-MIDDLE TN/NRN MS/NRN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...TORNADO WATCH 863...

VALID 190704Z - 190830Z

ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT EXPECTED WITHIN WW 863 FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DECOUPLE.  ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LOW OVER SERN MO WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS KY...WHILE A SECOND WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD
FROM THE LOW INTO WRN TN TO NRN AL.  VADS/PROFILER DATA INDICATED A
50-60 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVING INTO CENTRAL TX.  AGEOSTROPHIC
FLOW WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL MAINTAIN A 35-40 KT
SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO WRN TN...AIDING IN SUSTAINED
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WATCH OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NEW STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN AR INTO WRN TN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH ACTIVITY TRAINING EWD INTO MIDDLE/ERN TN AND FAR NRN PORTIONS
OF MS/AL.  TRAINING AND MERGING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED 30
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM HARDEMAN COUNTY TN TO WARREN COUNTY
TN.

..PETERS.. 10/19/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

36369094 36758606 36738468 34498570 34049094

35348929 35658901 35848743 35958587 35758565 35078585
35078781 35058910

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net