[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181704
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-181830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO SERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 181704Z - 181830Z

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SURFACE-BASED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A
WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER ERN KS /NE OF CNU/
WITH ATTENDANT WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED EWD INTO CNTRL MO AND THEN
SEWD INTO FAR SRN IL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO ANALYZED FROM
INTERSECTION WITH WARM FRONT SSE OF SZL SEWD INTO SERN MO NEAR POF.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER IS BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY MORE BUOYANT IN THE VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES WITH
MLCAPES NOW FROM 1000-2000 J/KG /REF 16Z SGF SOUNDING/ AND A
DECREASING CAP.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING NE OF AREA.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED
CONVERGENCE ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES MAY SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED
STORM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
150-250 M2/S2 /PER CONWAY MO PROFILER/ SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..MEAD.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...EAX...

38029357 38799314 38599067 37538895 36468949 36629079
37009184

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