[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181629
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-181800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR EWD ACROSS NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 855...

VALID 181629Z - 181800Z

THROUGH 1730-1800Z...GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE FROM
20 SE LIT/35 NNE PBF EWD INTO THE MS DELTA SW OF MEM.

AS OF 1615Z...LIT VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA INDICATED AN INTENSE
SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES OVER SRN PRAIRIE
COUNTY MOVING EWD AT 30-40 KTS. AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM UPSTREAM
OVER SRN LONOKE COUNTY WAS ALSO EXHIBITING LOW-LEVEL ROTATION.
REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS INTO
THE MS DELTA IS DESTABILIZING WITH TEMPERATURES NOW INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND MLCAPES OF 1000-1500
J/KG. MOREOVER...SGT SURFACE OBSERVATION SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF
LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF LEADING SUPERCELL. GIVEN 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2 /PER MODIFICATION
OF MEM VWP WITH SGT SURFACE OBSERVATION/ EXPECT ONGOING SUPERCELLS
TO PERSIST WITH ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT SHIFTING EWD INTO NWRN MS
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-1.5 HOURS.

..MEAD.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

34899289 35418827 33958824 33439290

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