[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 181520
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181520
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-181645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MO EWD INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 181520Z - 181645Z

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND
GUST IS EXPECTED WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER SERN KS EWD ACROSS CNTRL MO /S OF STL/ AND INTO FAR
SRN IND. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM ONGOING TSTM
ACTIVITY OVER THE OH VALLEY IS INTERSECTING WARM FRONT NEAR VIH WITH
A SWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE INTO NERN AR /NEAR ARG/. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ASCENT OVER AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES ALONG SWLY 40-50 KT
LLJ AXIS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL.

AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF E-CNTRL/SERN MO INTO SRN IL AND WRN KY
REMAINS COOL /TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S/ WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING A NEAR SURFACE INVERSION. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG
WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OWING TO STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS
AND FAST STORM MOTIONS...IT APPEARS THAT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
REMAIN PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONGEST CELLS INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

..MEAD.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

38759106 39308964 38918788 37778693 36628769 36458898
37069084

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net