[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 180719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180719
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-180815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN IL/CENTRAL-SRN MO SWD INTO AR/FAR ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 854...

VALID 180719Z - 180815Z

SEVERE HAIL THREAT EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS NWRN PORTION OF WW 854
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED SWD INTO AR BY OR AFTER 09Z...WITH A NEW WW POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL AR.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD...WITH HEIGHT
FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO AR.  SWLY LLJ IS
PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN TO 55 KT OVER WRN AR WITH AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING EWD TO THE MS RIVER BY 12Z.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED SOUTH CENTRAL
KS /JUST W OF MEDICINE LODGE/...ONE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL MO...AND THEN SEWD ACROSS WRN KY  A SECOND WARM FRONT
EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS NRN-SERN OK INTO SRN AR.  STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER SERN OK INTO SWRN AR ATTM...
WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 70S. STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ON THE NOSE OF THE SWLY LLJ INTO SRN/CENTRAL MO
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT FROM MO EWD ACROSS SRN IL TO SRN IND.  HOWEVER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL MO...WHERE STRONGEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
A CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

THE CAP REMAINS STRONGER FARTHER S ACROSS ERN OK INTO AR...AND IS
CURRENTLY PRECLUDING TSTMS.  MODELS SUGGEST THIS CAP SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTER 09Z AS HEIGHTS FALL AND THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION REMAINS FOCUSED ACROSS THIS AREA.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...WITH MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 10/18/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

39049409 39119162 39009000 37218916 36128904 35069108
34759220 33889299 33729403 33839475 36039481 36719449
37289372



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