[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242302
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-242330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2470
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...WCNTRL/SWRN OH AND NCNTRL/NWRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 903...

VALID 242302Z - 242330Z

TORNADO WATCH 903 EXPIRES AT 00Z.  ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/CNTRL/
SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY.

22Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 989MB SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IND WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWD ALONG THE OH RVR THEN SWWD INTO MIDDLE TN.  A
COUPLE BANDS OF TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THIS TROUGH...WITH THE
STRONGEST VCNTY THE SURFACE LOW OVER SERN IND. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HAS VEERED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY...BUT REMAIN
BACKED AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT SITUATED
FROM THE MIAMI VLY /KDAY/ TO KCMH.  THE WILMINGTON OH VWP SHOWS
0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES IN EXCESS OF 225 M2/S2.
SO...KINEMATICALLY...THERE REMAINS SUPPORT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES DOWNSTREAM FROM SERN IND INTO WCNTRL/CNTRL OH...OR ALONG
THE WARM FRONT.

THERMODYNAMICALLY...GIVEN LOSS OF SUNSHINE...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO COOL. THE RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MLCAPES
AOB 500 J/KG...WITH ONLY SMALL STABLE LAYER.  THUS...IT APPEARS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE FOR
A FEW MORE HOURS.

THUS...ANOTHER WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY DOWNSTREAM INTO
CNTRL/SCNTRL OH AND NCNTRL KY.

..RACY.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...

36688653 39208648 40168282 37718283 36648651

WWWW
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