[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 242056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242056
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-242300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MID TN...WRN/CENTRAL KY...SRN
INDIANA...SWRN OH

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 902...903...

VALID 242056Z - 242300Z

DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER SRN INDIANA JUST SSE OF
IND...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING INTO WRN OH.  SFC WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD ACROSS MORE OF SWRN OH FOLLOWED BY WEAKLY BUOYANT WARM
SECTOR AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES LESS THAN 500 J/KG.  STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF SFC LOW PATH OVER INDIANA/SWRN
OH.  THOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SOME UPDRAFTS
HAVE REMAINED UPRIGHT ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNINGS...AND KINEMATIC
PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE INVOF WARM FRONT.  MODIFIED
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND 18Z ILN RAOB SUGGEST JUST 1-2 DEG C COOLING NEAR
SFC  OVER REMAINDER WW AREAS REMOVES SBCAPE...THEREFORE...PRIND
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.

FARTHER S...AIR MASS ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE MUCH FURTHER IN LOW LEVELS...SO WW ISSUANCE THERE MAY
NOT BE NECESSARY.  VEERED FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH TCU
PERSIST IN SRN EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE ARC.  OPPORTUNITIES FOR
ADDITIONAL/SUSTAINED SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER TN APPEAR
TO BE SHRINKING AS DIABATIC HEATING PASSES PEAK...AND AS ISALLOBARIC
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH OH VALLEY CYCLONE KEEPS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
SWLY.  STILL...WW SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNTIL PROBABILITIES FOR
DEVELOPMENT DROP SUBSTANTIALLY...IN DEFERENCE TO STRENGTH OF AMBIENT
SHEAR AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

37508406 36638656 39188654 40098406

35078618 35048827 38618891 38668663

WWWW
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