[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 012025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012025
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-012200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2390
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IL...SE MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 012025Z - 012200Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH
ROTATING CELLS ACROSS SRN IL AND SE MO. A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

A LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH A FEW ROTATING CELLS IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING SE OF ST LOUIS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS RELATIVELY
STRONG IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVER ERN MO AND SW IL
AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS NEWD.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN PLACE. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS BEING ENHANCED NEAR THE CONVECTIVE
LINE TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS. WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING CELLS ARE MOVING TO THE NE AROUND 40
KTS.

..BROYLES.. 11/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

39028815 37798840 36098937 35959018 36409001 37258942
38668904 39638886 39508815

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