[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[bnawx at nashvilleweather.net]

ACUS11 KWNS 121759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121759
TNZ000-NCZ000-KYZ000-122030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 12 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 121759Z - 122030Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS MIDDLE AND ERN TN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS KY MAY SETTLE SWD INTO NRN TN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MAX
HEATING PERIOD ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...WHERE 100MB MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
INCREASED TO 2000-2500 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S.
MINIMAL CIN HAS ALLOWED FOR ISOLATED AIRMASS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MIDDLE/ERN TN...WITH MOVEMENT GENERALLY ENEWD AT
15-20 KT. PULSE CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY WITH STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 20-25 KT.
 EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SRN KY SHOULD PROPAGATE SLOWLY SWD
ALLOWING FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS NRN TN DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY ALSO FAVOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS NWRN TN DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 06/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

36628586 36468267 35988287 35728327 35438394 35258433
35048475 35298852 35478975 36418916 36668697

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