[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221102
KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-221700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 AM CST WED DEC 22 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN MO....SRN IL/IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 221102Z - 221700Z

A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF MDT TO HVY SNOW...WITH SNOWFALL RATES
APPROACHING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL AFFECT THE LWR AND MIDDLE OH
RIVER VLY THROUGH THE MORNING.

A SW-TO-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF DEEP FRONTOGENESIS WAS SITUATED FROM NRN
AR NEWD TO SWRN OH EARLY TODAY AS ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT A STRONG LLJ TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NWD FROM THE GULF/LWR MS VLY. OVERNIGHT...THIS PROCESS HAS
RESULTED IN RAIN CHANGING QUICKLY TO MDT TO HVY SNOW FROM SERN MO
ACROSS SRN IL AND IND. EXPECT THIS CHANGEOVER...AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST
SNOW...TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD ESE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS.

MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT QPF AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
IN THE ZONE OF STRONGEST FORCING...GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG THE
LWR/MID OH RIVER VLY...WILL SUPPORT MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO
1 INCH PER HOUR UNTIL ABOUT 18Z. LATEST ETA/RUC AND SREF GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGEST THAT INTENSITY OF VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR
WILL BEGIN TO WANE LATER THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS. THUS...MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL WILL NOT
ONLY SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT RATES MAY BEGIN
TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY 18Z.

..CARBIN.. 12/22/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...

37408695 36788810 36338891 36128945 36259026 37348998
38208896 38838753 39348638 39548518 39208441 38708483
38408524



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