[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 281605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281603
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-281830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 281603Z - 281830Z

SEVERE TSTMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT ACROSS PARTS SERN MO AND CNTRL/ERN
SECTIONS OF AR INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL WATCH AHEAD OF ONGOING
STORMS MAY BE NEEDED IF ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED WELL DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE
COLD POOL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEEP CONVECTION EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WRN AR THIS MORNING WELL AHEAD OF DEEPER SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE.
THE SQUALL LINE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 20KT WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW ACROSS SRN
MO. ALL OF THESE STORMS REMAIN IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PER
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT VWP DATA. HOWEVER...INTENSE
SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AND SMALL MID LEVEL
WIND MAX OF ABOUT 30KT ASSOCIATED WITH MCV APPROACHING FROM
OK...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS FROM MULTICELL STORMS ALIGNED ALONG THE OUTFLOW...OR NEAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. A FEW ISOLD MARGINAL HAIL REPORTS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IF CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS CONTINUE...A WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 08/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...

37918974 36878942 35468984 33939095 33689186 33729283
33809360 34079426 35669307 36299302 37319298



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