[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 260049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260047
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-260145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN IL INTO SERN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 783...784...

VALID 260047Z - 260145Z

TORNADO WATCH 783 WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 0100Z. PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH 02Z WILL REMAIN ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
SEVERE TSTM WATCH 784.

TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH TRAILING STRATIFORM
REGION OVER WW 783 WITH A GENERAL EWD MOTION AT 20-30KTS. FARTHER
S...MORE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE IN PROGRESS S OF STL
WITHIN NERN PORTION OF WW 784. INSPECTION OF 00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS
THAT ACTIVITY OVER E-CNTRL/SERN MO IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITHIN AN
AIRMASS SAMPLED AT SGF WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG.
HOWEVER...IL MCS APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING E OF INSTABILITY
AXIS.

ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY IL MCS AS IT
PROGRESSES EWD...THE DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTEND SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THUS...WW 783 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 01Z.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF WW 784.
HERE...DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN FEED OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY INTO SRN FLANK OF ONGOING STORMS.

..MEAD.. 08/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

36489391 38619254 38589087 39649082 40498949 40468758
38558765 36388945

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