[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[Nashville EMWIN]

ACUS11 KWNS 101922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101921
KYZ000-MOZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-102115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1945
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR/FAR SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101921Z - 102115Z

THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NRN AR/FAR SRN MO...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

LATEST VIS SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS MCV TRANSITIONING EWD
ACROSS SW MO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE INSOLATION HAS ALLOWED
DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS INVOF OZARKS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
F...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S F. AS A RESULT...AMPLE
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ACROSS FAR SRN
MO...INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG INTO NRN AR.

MODEST AMBIENT WIND FIELDS /CHARACTERIZED BY 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW AS EVIDENT IN CONWAY MO PROFILER/ AND EWD PROGRESSION OF MCV
INVOF E-W ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM
ORGANIZATION. OVERALL SCENARIO IS SUGGESTIVE OF PULSE-TYPE MODE WITH
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 08/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

37259296 37319167 37098958 36288954 35459023 34919162
35389345 36069364 36839343

WWWW
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