[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292252
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: Low pressure of
1009 mb is centered near 27N57W. Broad and persistent high
pressure is present to its northeast and east. A very tight
pressure gradient between the low and the high pressure has been
sustaining a large fetch of fresh to strong southeast winds for
the past several days. This synoptic set up has resulted in seas
of 10 to 14 ft over the waters from 23N to 31N between 41W and 55W
with period 10- 17 sec. In the eastern Atlantic, a dissipating
cold front from Mauritania to N of the Canary Islands has been
generating swell behind it, with seas of 12 to 15 ft extending E
to around 35W, with period of 10 to 15W. This swell should decay
tonight with seas falling below 12 ft.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W southwestward to 01N19W. The ITCZ is
confined to waters S of the equator. Numerous strong convection
is noted near the equator to the E of 20W. Scattered moderate
convention extends from the equator to 07N W of 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1023 centered in the SE U.S. has a ridge that
extends southwest into the Gulf of Mexico and is dominating the
basin. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure
S of the Gulf is leading to moderate to fresh mainly SE winds in
the southern and western Gulf, with mostly gentle winds in the NE.
Seas are 3 to 6 ft, highest offshore western Cuba and lowest near
the eastern Gulf coast. No convection is occurring this evening.

For the forecast, high pressure across the northern Gulf will
shift E this weekend and support fresh E to SE winds across the
western Gulf Sat through Mon. Another cold front will enter the
western Gulf on Tue. The front will extends from the Florida
panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected west of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front that had been over the NW Caribbean has
dissipated. In its wake, convection has also waned, and fresh NE
winds are gradually diminishing. Elsewhere across the basin,
mainly gentle NE to E trades prevail, except closer to lower
pressure over Colombia, where offshore waters are having fresh to
locally strong trades. Seas in the NW Caribbean area 4 to 7 ft,
with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere, except 4 to 7 ft locally within 90
nm of the Colombian coast.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and
across the Windward Passage tonight through Sat evening. Winds and
seas will then diminish by Sat night. Strong trade winds and
rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern
coast of Hispaniola this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Significant Swell that is impacting sections of the central and
eastern Atlantic.

A weakening cold front is noted from just SE of Bermuda to the
Turks and Caicos. A band of scattered moderate convection is noted
along and within 60 nm ahead of this boundary. Fresh to locally
strong NW to N winds follow the front and extend W to around 75W.
Further W, with high pressure building in from the U.S., winds are
moderate or weaker. Behind the front, seas are 8 to 11 ft, with
12 to 14 ft seas SW of Bermuda, N of 27N between 65W and 75W.

To the southeast of the front, broad low pressure of 1009 mb is
near 27N57W, with a trough extending northwest from it to 31N60W,
and another trough extending from the low to 22N56W and
southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands. A wide area of
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection associated with
these features is present N of 23N between 45W and 51W. Strong to
locally near gale force SE winds is present in and around this
area of convection.

A broad area of rather persistent high pressure continues to be
the main feature controlling the wind pattern regime over the
eastern Atlantic and the eastern part of the central Atlantic
areas. The high pressure is anchored by a 1025 mb center that is
north of the area near 33N39W. Moderate to trades dominate waters
S of 21N and E of 41W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds
are light to gentle with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, broad low pressure SE of Bermuda
centered near 27N56W will weaken to a trough and move east of 55W
tonight. Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N65W to E Cuba.
The front will reach from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by Sat
morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds and
rough seas will follow this front. Winds and seas will decrease
from west to east this weekend as high pressure builds eastward in
the wake of the front.

$$
Konarik
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