[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291738
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Low pressure
of 1009 mb is centered near 26N57W. Broad and persistent high
pressure is present to its northeast and east. A very tight
pressure gradient between the low and the high pressure has been
sustaining a large fetch of fresh to strong southeast winds for
the past several days. This synoptic set up has resulted in seas
of 10 to 15 ft over the waters from 22N to 31N between 33W and a
line from 31N61W to 22N50W with period 10-17 sec. A recent
altimeter satellite data pass indicated these seas. In the eastern
Atlantic, a weakening cold front that extends from northern
Africa southwestward to 23N20W and northwestward to near 25N33W.
Significant north swell producing seas of 11 to 17 ft is north of
the front east of 35W with period of 10-15 sec. The swell will
gradually decay through Sat as the swell groups migrate south-
southeastward.


 The surface low pressure will meander today and dissipate. The
east Atlantic front will also continue to drift eastward and
weaken. Winds and seas are expected to subside by Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W southwestward to 01N19W, where latest
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 02S26W and to near 02S43W. Numerous clusters strong
convection are emerging off the coast of Africa south of the
trough to near 01S and east of 17W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is northwest of the ITCZ from along and near
the equator west of 37W to inland the coast of northeast Brazil
and north to near 07N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1025 mb analyzed over the northeast part of
Alabama has a ridge that extends southwestward to the central
and NW Gulf waters. The gradient between the ridge and a cold
front that is southeast of the Gulf is allowing for fresh
northeast winds to be over the southeastern Gulf. Winds elsewhere
are gentle to moderate, northeast to east in direction over the
central Gulf and fresh, southeast in direction, over the NW Gulf.
Seas are in the range 3 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 5 to 7
ft over the central Gulf and 6 to 8 ft seas over the southeastern
Gulf.

Satellite imagery shows no convection throughout the basin,
instead mostly clear skies prevail under the high pressure that
is in place.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will shift
eastward this weekend, with its associated gradient interacting
with deepening low pressure in the southern Plains. This synoptic
set up is expected to bring fresh east to southeast winds across
the western Gulf Sat through Mon. Another cold front may enter the
western Gulf by Tue increasing winds and seas west of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front stretches from eastern Cuba to the
northeast part of Honduras. Fresh to strong northeast winds are
behind the front along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Satellite imagery
shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm
west of the front from 16N to 18N. Isolated showers are elsewhere
within 180 nm west of the front from 16N to 19N. With the front
moving across the western Atlantic, this has caused the pressure
gradient to weaken over the remainder of the basin. The tail-end
of a central Atlantic trough reaches to near the northern Leeward
Islands while another central Atlantic trough reaches to near the
northern Windward Islands. Winds east of the front are northerly,
light to gentle in speeds, except east of 65W they are mostly
light, west to northwest in direction. North swell that has been
impacting the Caribbean Passages continues to produce seas to
around 5 to 6 ft in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend.
Seas elsewhere east of the front are about 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds behind the front will
follow the front across the remainder of the western Caribbean
today. Winds and seas will diminish this afternoon. High pressure
building north of the region in the wake of the front will support
fresh to strong northeast winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and
across the Windward Passage tonight through Sat evening. Winds and
seas will then diminish by Sat evening. Moderate north swell that
is propagating through the northeast Caribbean Passages and
adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters will subside through early on
Sat. Strong trade winds and rough seas will pulse off the coast of
Colombia and the southern coast of Hispaniola this weekend as the
high pressure settles to the northeast of the Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
Significant Swell event that is impacting sections of the central
and eastern Atlantic.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N67W to 26N71W and to
eastern Cuba. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass reveals fresh to
strong northwest to north west of the front north of 27N, and
fresh north to northeast west of the front south of 27N. Seas
behind the front are 9 to 14 ft in northwest to north of 27N and 8
to 12 ft south of 27N. To the southeast of the front, low
pressure of 1009 mb is near 26N57W, with a trough extending
northwest from it to 31N60W, and another trough extending from the
low to 22N56W and southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands.
A trough is to the east of these features from 31N54W to 20N55W
and southwestward to the northern Windward Islands. Gentle to
moderate west to northwest winds are between the troughs connected
to the low pressure and the aforementioned cold front. Seas over
these waters are 6 to 8 ft in northeast to east swell. Recent
ASCAT satellite data passes indicate fresh to strong southeast
winds north of 20N between 46W-52W. Within this area of fresh to
strong winds, the ASCAT data has near gale southeast to south
winds from 22N to 26N between 48W and 51W, and also from 23N to
26N between 41W and 48W. Seas as described above under Special
Features.

A broad area of rather persistent high pressure continues to be
the main feature controlling the wind pattern regime over the
eastern Atlantic and the eastern part of the central Atlantic
areas. The high pressure is anchored by a 1027 mb center that is
north of the area near 34N40W. Latest ASCAT satellite data passes
reveal mostly fresh trade winds from 03N to 22N between 20W and
41W. Seas over these waters are in the range of 6 to 8 ft. S of
03N and east of 46W, trade are light to gentle in speeds with seas
of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, broad low pressure located to the
southeast of Bermuda near 26N57W will meander then weaken to a
trough this afternoon while it slowly moves east of 55W tonight.
Farther west, a cold front extends from near 31N67W to 26N71W and
to eastern Cuba will reach from near 31N55W to the Mona Passage by
Sat morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds
and rough seas will follow this front. Winds and seas will
decrease from west to east this weekend as high pressure builds
eastward in the wake of the front.

$$
Aguirre
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