[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280715 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...COR
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

CORRECTION FOR THE SATELLITE IMAGERY TIME

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Large northerly swell, that is originating in the NE Atlantic
Ocean offshore Europe, will enter the far NE Atlantic Ocean on
Thursday morning. The sea heights will build to greater than 12
feet, and reach a peak of 19 feet, on Thursday night. The sea
heights of 12 feet will be from 20N northward from 45W eastward on
Friday evening, before diminishing to less than 12 feet early on
Saturday.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N13W, to 03N20W, and to the Equator along 30W. The
ITCZ continues from the Equator along 30W, to the Equator along
32W, to 01S38W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is from 06N southward between 10W and 35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An eastern Gulf of Mexico cold front passes through North Florida,
to just to the east of the Florida Big Bend, to 29N85W, 24N87W,
through the north central Yucatan Peninsula, into the northern
parts of Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 24N to
26N between 82W and 85W, from 120 nm to 270 nm to the east of the
cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, is from 24N to 30N
between 74W and 85W. The clouds and the precipitation cover parts
of Florida peninsula, the Florida Keys, the Bahamas, and the
adjacent waters.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge is covering the
Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward.

Slight seas are from 22N southward between 90W and 95W, and from
27N southward from 85W eastward. Moderate seas are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE winds are to
the east of the cold front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are
from the cold front westward.

A slow moving cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend in the
northeast Gulf to 26N86W to the central Yucatan Peninsula. Strong
thunderstorms will continue along and E of the front overnight.
Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow
the front across the Gulf, as it moves southeast of the basin Thu.
Winds and seas will subside Thu night into Fri as high pressure
moves across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking
ahead, this pattern will also support fresh E to SE winds across
the western Gulf through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front is between 55W and 57W from 20N
northward. A surface trough is from 20N57W to 17N63W in the NE
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
clouds, and isolated moderate, are to the north and to the
northeast of the line that is from SW Haiti to the coast of
Venezuela that is along 68W.

Mostly moderate to fresh SE winds are from from 80W westward.
Some fresh to strong SE winds are in the Yucatan Channel, and
within 120 nm of Honduras between 84W and 86W. Moderate or slower
anticyclonic surface wind flow covers the rest of the area.
Moderate seas are from 15N northward. Slight seas are elsewhere.

A cold front currently from the SE Gulf of Mexico and into the
central Yucatan Peninsula will move southeastward into the Yucatan
Channel early Thu, then reach from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by
Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
immediately follow the front across the NW Caribbean Thu and Thu
night. Winds and seas will diminish late Fri across NW portions as
the front reaches the Windward Passage, then weakens from
Hispaniola to the Honduras-Nicaragua border on Sat. High pressure
building north of the region in the wake of the front will support
fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern Cuba and across
the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat. These winds and seas
will diminish late Sat. Moderate N swell is moving through the NE
Caribbean Passages and adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters tonight
and will gradually subside through late Thu. Strong trade winds
and rough seas will pulse off the coast of Colombia and the
southern coast of Hispaniola Sat and Sun as the high pressure
settles north of the area, and E of the Bahamas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT, in the far NE Atlantic Ocean, for the
next few days.

A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 30.5N 59.5W. A cold front
curves away from the low pressure center, between 55W and 57W from
20N northward. A surface trough is from 20N57W to 17N63W in the
NE Caribbean Sea. A second surface trough curves away from the
1009 mb low pressure center, 23N60W 21N66W 22N70W 31N74W. A 1010
mb low pressure center is near 27N64W. Strong SE winds are
within 90 nm to the east of the cold front from 25N northward.
Fresh to strong southerly winds are elsewhere within 180 nm to the
east of the cold front from 20N to 25N. Moderate or slower winds
are between the 1010 mb low pressure center and the areas of the
comparatively faster winds. Fresh NW winds are between the 1010 mb
low pressure center and 74W. Moderate or slower winds are from 74W
westward. Broad moderate to fresh surface anticyclonic wind flow
is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough seas are from 20N
northward from 50W westward. An exception is for moderate seas
from the Bahamas southward. Rough seas are from 50W eastward, to
the north of the line 14N50W 12N30W 21N17W. Moderate seas are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Low pressure SE of Bermuda near 29N62W will drift southeast and
dissipate through Thu. Large northerly swell dominates the waters
W of 60W and will gradually subside through late Thu. An
associated cold front extends from 31N59W to 26N55W to the central
Lesser Antilles. An area of strong to near-gale force winds,
rough to very rough seas, and scattered strong thunderstorms
remains active to the east of the front, N of 20N. The low
pressure and front will gradually shift to the east of 55W Thu
through Fri. Farther west, a new cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast early Thu, and reach from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba by early Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by
early Sat, then move east of the area Sun. Strong winds and rough
seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to east as
high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N in the wake of the
front.

$$
mt/ss
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