[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...
A cold front has begun to stall across the western Atlantic, from
31N59W to the central Leeward Islands. High pressure of 1030 mb
resides across the eastern Atlantic near 37N43W. The pressure
gradient between the high and a surface trough that has developed
about 120 nm E of the front, is producing an elongated band of
strong to gale-force SE winds. Gales currently extend northward of
26.5N between 54W and 57W, with seas of 12 to 13 ft in mixed E
and SE swell. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are also persisting
across this area, along and to the east of the surface trough.
The area of SE gales will shift northward along and to the east of
the surface trough through this afternoon, and lift out of the
area waters by mid-afternoon. Seas in this area will build to 12
to 16 ft during that time. Strong SE winds to near 30 kt are then
expected across this area through Thu.

...WESTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...
Large northerly swell generated across the NW Atlantic in the
past 48 hours continues to propagate southward across the western
Atlantic, behind a cold front that extends from 31N59W to the
central Leeward Islands. This large swell is generally from the N
to NE W of 68W and NW to N between the front and 68W. Seas of 12
to 15 ft prevail N of 24N between 64W and 78W, and have peaked in
recent hours. This swell has reached the NE Caribbean Islands and
SE Bahamas overnight and is moving through the Caribbean Passages
at this time. An associated 1005 mb low pressure center just SW of
Bermuda near 31.5N65W will move southeastward during the next 48
hours and help to maintain the development of northerly swell
moving towards the northeast Caribbean. However, the current swell
in the water will gradually subside today, and fall below 12 ft
this evening. Moderate northerly swell will continue to impact the
area waters W of 60W tonight through Thu night.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from
04N18W, to 01N22W, crossing the Equator along 23W, 06S26W, and
08S33W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from
08N southward between 10W and 54W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has nearly stalled across the basin overnight,
extending from the western Florida panhandle near Cape San Blas to
the central Bay of Campeche. A dry and reinforcing secondary front
follows, and stretches from near Pensacola, Florida to extreme NE
Mexico, just south of Brownsville, Texas. Fresh north to
northeast winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are behind the second
front. The pressure gradient between the leading front and a high
pressure ridge east of Florida is sustaining fresh SE to S winds
east of the front, where seas have subsided to 4 to 7 ft.
Satellite imagery shows a line of scattered moderate isolated
strong thunderstorms within 120 nm east of the first front, and
north of 27N.

For the forecast, high pressure will build modestly into the W
Gulf this morning through Thu, which will produce fresh to strong
winds and building seas behind the second front, as the front
merge late today and move across the south-central and southeast
Gulf Thu through Thu evening. Expect rough seas in the Yucatan
Channel by Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish again across
the Gulf Fri into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward across
the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE
return flow over the northwest Gulf by late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 5 to 8 ft, ahead of a
cold front currently moving across the central Gulf of Mexico. The
pressure gradient between high pressure that is present just
north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the
Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central
Caribbean. The Atlantic cold front has moved slowly SE and across
the central Leeward Islands overnight. A narrow ridge extends from
N of the Bahamas into the SE Bahamas, and is producing moderate
northerly winds behind the front across the northeast Caribbean.
Large northerly swell has reached the northeast Caribbean coasts
and Passages overnight, with regional buoy observations suggesting
seas of 6 to 9 ft through the area passages, and 3 to 4 ft
elsewhere across the eastern basin. Scattered showers are across
the Virgin Islands and waters to the immediate SW, while scattered
moderate to heavy showers are ahead of the front across the
northern Windward Islands.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest
Caribbean will diminish this afternoon and tonight, as a cold
front moves SE into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to
strong N winds and large swell will follow the front as it moves
in through the Yucatan Channel Thu. The front will continue to
move SE and reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu
evening, and from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Fri morning,
as wind and seas begin to diminish behind the front. Looking
ahead, expect fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward
Passage Fri night through late Sat, as the front stalls from
central Hispaniola to northeast Nicaragua. Expect fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean Sun
as high pressure builds north of the region and to the east of
the northern Bahamas, in the wake of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large northerly swell dominates the Western Atlantic between the Bahamas
and 60W. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information.

A cold front is analyzed from 31N59W to the central Leeward
Islands. A weak surface trough is within 120 nm E of the front and
is producing mostly cloudy skies and moderate to heavy shower
activity across and to the NE of the northern Windward Islands.
A broad zone of strong to gale-force SE winds prevail E of the
front, to the N of 24N. See the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information on the gales. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection persists along and within 240 nm east of the front, to
the north of 20N. High pressure is building in behind the front
with a ridge extending southward toward the SE Bahamas, and
Hispaniola. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are N of 27N
and west of the front to 72W where seas are 12 to 16 ft in north
swell. Elsewhere west of the front, light to gentle winds are
noted, with the exception of moderate SE winds W of 78W. Seas are
8 to 12 ft in northeast swell east and north of the Bahamas. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a high pressure center of 1030 mb located W of the Azores near
37N43W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is occurring south of
the associated ridge and extends to along the above mentioned
cold front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft across the trade wind zone N of
14N and E of 50W, and 11 to 13 ft along and NE of the front.
Rough to very rough seas surrounds the Madeira Islands. Moderate
to fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic S of 15N, with
seas of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N59W to
the central Leeward Islands will move slowly eastward and weaken
through Thu, as associated low pressure currently just SW of
Bermuda moves southeastward to near 29N59W around midday, and
stalls near 26N59W on Thu. E of the front, a broad band of
strong to gale-force SE winds extends across the far NE offshore
waters, and are expected to diminish below gale-force this
afternoon. The front will move eastward of the regional waters
and gradually weaken by Fri, as the low pressure weakens, and
lifts northward again, passing to the east of Bermuda early Sat.
Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow a new
cold front that will move off the NE coast of Florida Thu, reach
from Bermuda to eastern Cuba late Fri morning, and from 31N55W to
central Hispaniola Sat morning. Looking ahead, the front will
stall and weaken from 31N55W to the Leeward Islands by late Sun.
Winds and seas will diminish in most areas W of the front as high
pressure builds along 27N in the wake of the front.

$$
Stripling
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