[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Heavy Rainfall:

Elongated low pressure, supported by a deep layered upper level
low pressure, extends from central Alabama to central Florida. A
cold front extends from 1005 mb low pressure over central Alabama
to near Tampico, Mexico. The surface low pressure is gradually
tracking eastward across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Abundant moisture
associated with this system is coupling with diffluent winds aloft
to trigger scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida,
the north central coast of Cuba, and the northern Bahamas and
adjacent Atlantic waters. These thunderstorms can become severe,
capable of producing heavy downpours with low visibility, frequent
gale-force wind gusts and possible waterspouts. These
thunderstorms will produce 2 to 4 inches of rain across southern
Florida through Saturday afternoon. Please refer to your local NWS
Weather Forecast Offices at website:
https://www.weather.gov for the latest advisories and warnings.

Western Atlantic Gale Warning:

A 1032 mb high is centered just NE of Bermuda, and extends a broad
ridge southwestward to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and the broad low pressure moving across the NE
Gulf of Mexico and Florida is producing a broad zone of strong to
gale-force SE to S winds to the north of 20N and west of 67W this
morning. A cold front across the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
exit into the western Atlantic by early afternoon. Near-gale to
gale-force southerly winds ahead of this front are occurring in a
band from the NW Bahamas N-NE to beyond 31N between 73W and 79W.
Seas in this area have built to 14 ft along 31N this morning. As
the front moves eastward this afternoon through Sun, these near-
gale to gale-force winds will shift to north of 27N between 68W
and 75W by tonight, and from 65W to 70W Sun. Seas will peak at
around 16 ft along 31N. By Sunday afternoon, this areas of gale
winds and high seas are expected to gradually subside through
Sunday evening as the front steadily weakens.

Mariners should monitor all the above hazardous marine conditions
and adjust their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High
Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Gambia and southern Senegal, then reaches southwestward to
04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 02S29W to the coast of
Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 05S to 06N east of 30W, and from 05S to 03N between 30W
and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about heavy rainfall in
the SE Gulf.

There are two cold fronts across the northwestern and central
Gulf of Mexico in association with a deep-layered 1005 mb surface
low that is located central Alabama. Numerous strong to severe
convection occurring over the SE Gulf earlier tonight has shifted
eastward into the Bahamas and weakened, while scattered moderate
isolated strong convection has developed from the Florida Bay to
NW Cuba. Fresh SW surface winds are assumed to be occurring
across this area, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, fresh to
strong NW to N winds follow this second front across NW portions,
where seas are building to 5 to 7 ft. In the far NE Gulf N of
27N E of 86W, seas are 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the broad area of deep-layered low pressure
across the north central and northeast Gulf will move NE across
northern Florida and the SE U.S. today. A trailing cold front
will exit the basin to the SE by this evening. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will spill across the basin well behind the front
today. High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift
eastward late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf Sun, ahead
of the next cold front. Strong southerly winds will then shift to
the central and eastern Gulf early Mon through Mon night as the
new cold front enters the western Gulf Mon night. Fresh to strong
N winds are briefly expected Tue behind the front over the W Gulf
of Mexico. The front will slow and weaken mid-week from the
Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds are occurring across the
northwest Caribbean as deepening low pressure is moving E-NE
across the NE Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, high pressure over the NW
Atlantic extends a surface ridge southwestward to the central
Bahamas, sustaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea, except for locally strong winds
off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail
across the basin, with peak seas 8 to 9 ft offshore of NW Colombia.
The basin is generally free of precipitation.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will shift E-NE through
Mon. Fresh to locally strong SE to S winds occurring across the
northwest Caribbean and Yucatan Channel will gradually diminish
today as the Gulf of Mexico cold front reaches the Yucatan
Channel this afternoon. The front will reach from eastern Cuba to
near the Honduras-Nicaragua border Sun morning, then stall and
dissipate from Hispaniola to NE Nicaragua on Mon. Fresh to strong
SE winds will develop again over the western Caribbean late Mon
through Tue, ahead of the next frontal system entering the Gulf of
Mexico. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the NE
and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details about
the Gale Warning.

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
surface ridge centered on a 1032 mb high located NE of Bermuda.
An old stationary front extends from 31N47W to 23N54W where it
transitions to a shear line that continues to the N coast of the
Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are north of
this front to 70W. NE to E winds of similar speed are found
between the Cape Verde Islands and the coast of Africa. Rough seas
in this region peak near 14 ft offshore of Morrocco. Elsewhere,
moderate NE to E winds prevail with moderate seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will shift E-NE
and strengthen through Mon. Strong to gale-force SE to S winds
occurring N of the Bahamas and W of 72W will shift slowly eastward
through Sun, ahead of a cold front. Strong thunderstorms with
frequent gusts to gale-force and frequent lightning are expected
across the Straits of Florida, and the Bahamas today and will
shift eastward through Sat night. The cold front will exit NE
Florida this afternoon, reach from near 31N70W to central Cuba on
Sun morning, reach from 31N65W to the Windward Passage by Mon
morning, then weaken considerably as it moves SE across the
Atlantic and adjacent NE Caribbean waters through Tue night.
Strong to near gale-force NE winds and large NE to N swell will
follow the front early Sun through Mon. Low pressure will develop
NW of Bermuda Tue and drift SE and weaken across the area waters
through Wed. Large N to NW swell will spread across the waters E
of 70W early Tue through Wed.

$$
Stripling
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