[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201836
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A surface low pressure center and a cold front are forecast to
form near the coast of Texas late on Thursday. The weather system
will move rapidly through the Gulf of Mexico on Friday. The
forecast for Friday and for Saturday consists of widespread heavy
rainfall that will cover the areas from the Bahamas to Cuba, in
the Straits of Florida, and in the southern sections of Florida.

Please, refer to bulletins and advisories from the local Weather
Services that are in these areas, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 02N20W, crossing the Equator along
25W, to the Equator along 30W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator
along 30W, to 01S37W, and to 02S44W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of 09N14W
08N22W 04N30W 06N42W 06N54W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure center is off the coast of SE Louisiana.
Broad mostly moderate anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
Moderate seas are in the southern half of the area. Slight seas
are in the northern half of the area.

High pressure dominates the Gulf waters. This system will quickly
shift eastward through Thu as a warm front and low pressure
develop near the coast of Texas. The low pressure is forecast to
track east-northeastward across the northern Gulf and to over the
western Florida panhandle and the southeastern U.S. Fri and Fri
night pushing a cold front across the basin. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected with the low center and attendant cold
front. High pressure in its wake will also quickly shift eastward
from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds, and moderate seas, are in the
south central sections, and in the SE Caribbean Sea. Moderate or
slower winds, and slight to moderate seas, are in the remainder of
the area.

High pressure located to the NE of the Caribbean Sea will support
fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central
Caribbean through this morning. These winds will diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds later today due to a weakened pressure
gradient over the area. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds
will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night. These winds may
reach near gale force Thu night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N54W to 25N60W, curving to SE Cuba.
Precipitation: scattered strong is within 60 nm on either side of
the front from 27N northward. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the front from
60W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 45W and
72W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the west of the
cold front.

A surface ridge passes through a 38N27W 1032 mb high pressure
center, to 31N39W 29N42W, to 26N50W, 18N63W in the NE Caribbean
Sea. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward,
to the east of the advancing cold front.

Strong NE winds are from 11N northward from 40W eastward. Fresh NE
winds are elsewhere from 54W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are
in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from
05N northward from 40W eastward, and from 26N northward from 60W
westward. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N54W to eastern Cuba will reach
from near 31N52W to northern Hispaniola this evening, with weak
low pressure forming along the northern end of the front. The
weak low will be near 30N55W by early Thu with the trailing cold
front extending to Hispaniola. By early Fri, the front will
shift E of the area. High pressure in the wake of the front will
quickly move eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the
forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the
Gulf of Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night and
Sat. These winds will expand in coverage ahead of a cold front
that will trail from the low over the western waters, reaching
from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun. Gale conditions
will be possible over most of the northern and central zones
with the southerly winds Fri and Sat. Strong to near gale
northwest to north winds along with building seas will follow in
behind the front.


$$
MT
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