[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event:
Decaying NW swell retreated north of 31N into the northeastern
Atlantic earlier tonight. This has allowed seas south of 31N at
the central Atlantic to subside below 12 ft. Refer to the Atlantic
section at the end for more detail on the current sea state.

South Central Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High near 30N57W and
Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong winds at
the south-central Caribbean and near the ABC Islands through
Monday. Enhanced by local topography, these winds offshore from
Barranquilla will peak at near-gale to gale-force tonight through
early Saturday morning. Seas under these winds will reach 10 to 12
ft.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecasts and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 03N19W. An
ITCZ continues from 03N19W to beyond 00S30W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is seen near and up to 80 nm northwest of the
ITCZ. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal boundary is across the Gulf States, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are occurring south of this feature near the
coast of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Otherwise a surface
ridge associated with the Bermuda High in the western Atlantic,
extends southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico,
Mexico. Moist southeasterly flow is coupling with cooler night
time temperatures to create patchy fog offshore from Texas and
Louisiana, visibility ranges from 1 to 2 nm. Moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the south-central
Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate SE
to S winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will slide eastward into the
central Atlantic through Mon, while maintaining the ridge across
the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico through Sun. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds are expected over the southern Gulf
through early Sun. Winds northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula will
pulse to between fresh and strong during the nighttime and early
morning hours. A cold front will move into the northwestern Gulf
Sun night and gradually shift south of the basin by Tue evening.
Increasing wind and seas are expected behind this front Sun night
through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

The Bermuda High near 30N57W is sustaining a trade-wind regime
across the entire Caribbean Sea. Outside the Gale Warning area,
fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident at
the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong easterly winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras, south of
Hispaniola, and near the Windward Passage and ABC Islands. Gentle
to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist near the
Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will slide eastward across the
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic over the weekend. The
lingering ridge will support fresh to strong winds across the
south-central and portions of the southeastern Caribbean through
Tue. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will pulse to between fresh and
locally strong across the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola through early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from just east of the Azores
across 31N28W to 24N40W, then continues as a surface trough to
northeast of the Lesser Antilles at 19N57W. Scattered moderate
convection is found up to 120 nm northwest, and 70 nm southeast of
the front. Patchy showers are present up to 100 nm along either
side of the trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen
north of 28N between 65W and the Georgia-northeast Florida coast.
Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted from
19N to 22N between 50W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, a 1022 mb
Bermuda High near 30N57W is promoting light to gentle winds with
seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate northerly swell north of 19N between
50W/65W and the Florida coast. A 1018 mb high at the eastern
Atlantic near 24N31W is supporting light to gentle winds and 9 to
11 ft seas in large NW swell north of 20N between 25W and
50W/65W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to
moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft in moderate NW
swell exist north of 20N between the Africa coast and 25W. For the
tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 19N between 25W and the
Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE
winds and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate. Light to gentle monsoonal winds
and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will slide eastward into the
east-central Atlantic through Mon before becoming nearly
stationary. A broad associated ridge will persist across the
central and western Atlantic through Mon. Rough seas in northerly
swell dominating east of 60W will gradually subside tonight. A
cold front will enter the offshore waters of northeastern Florida
on Mon morning and then reach southwestward from near Bermuda
through the central Bahamas by Tue morning. Fresh to strong S to
SW winds are expected north of 28N ahead of the front Sun night
through Tue night, while fresh to strong NW to N winds will
follow the front north of 27N Mon through Tue.

$$

Chan
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