[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141653
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Mar 14  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are generally north of 25N
between 35W and 59W. This area of large swell will subside and
decrease in areal extent as it propagates to the northeast of
the discussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and
Puerto Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across
the south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of
Colombia are providing an additional influence to support 30 to
40 kt NE to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and
Barranquilla during the night time hours. Associated seas are
likely around 11 ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force
tonight and Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 03S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04S to 00N between
21W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A subtropical ridge extends to the Gulf of Mexico from a 1021 mb
high that is centered over western Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and a trough over
Mexico is supporting moderate winds over the Gulf waters W of
86W including the Yucatan Channel. Seas in with this winds are 3
to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are present east of 86W, with
seas 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf
waters through into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will
increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the
basin today through Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and
early morning hours due to local effects. A weak cold front will
enter the NW Gulf waters late Fri and slide eastward, while a
stronger cold front will move across the area late this weekend
into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Aside from the gale force winds off Colombia, fresh to strong
winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to
localized strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-11
ft range in the south central Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge centered north of
the area will shift eastward over the next several days. The
area of high pressure will support fresh to strong winds across
the south- central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to
gale- force tonight and Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft
during the strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally
strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of
Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A dissipating cold front extends from 31N25W to 23N45W, then it
becomes stationary front from 23N45W to 22N54W. A surface trough
extends from the stationary front to north of the Hispaniola.
Fresh to strong W to NW winds are observed N of 29N between 38W
and 65W. Behind the front a 1021 mb high pressure is center near
27N66W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
evident across the tropical Atlantic south of 18N. Light to
gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Combined seas in excess of 8
ft are noted north of 18N between 32W and 65W, impacting the
Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands. Moderate seas are
noted elsewhere over the subtropical Atlantic waters north of
18N.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad high pressure will persist
across the area during the next several days. The area of high
pressure will shift eastward this weekend enabling a cold front
to move into the NW waters early next week. Rough to very rough
seas E of 60W will gradually subside from W to E through Fri.

$$
KRV
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