[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Mar 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are generally north of 24N
between 40W and 65W. This area of large swell will subside and
decrease in areal extent as it propagates to the northeast of the
disscussion area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and
Puerto Rico is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia
are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt NE
to E winds near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla
during the night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 10
ft currently. Winds will pulse to gale-force each night through
Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center at websites: https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea
near 10.50N14W to 03n20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to
05S35W. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident
at this time.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure pattern continues over the Gulf of Mexico, between
1019 mb high pressure in the Big Bend area of Florida in the
northeast Gulf, and a weak trough over the western Yucatan
peninsula. This pattern is supporting light to gentle SE breezes
and 1 to 3 ft seas, except for moderate to fresh wind near Yucatan
as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf
waters through the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate
winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority
of the basin tonight through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong
winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
night and early morning hours due to local effects. A cold front
may move into the N Gulf by the end of the week.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A scatterometer satellite pass from earlier in the evening showed
near-gale force winds off the coast of Colombia. This will likely
increase to minimal gale force later this morning due to local
drainage effects. Fresh to strong trade winds persist across the
south-central Caribbean of 15N, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Fresh to
strong winds are also noted off Honduras with 5 to 7 ft seas.
Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. No significant
weather is noted.

For the forecast, broad high pressure centered north of the area
will shift eastward the end of the week into the weekend. The area
of high pressure will support fresh to strong winds across the
south- central Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-
force at night through Fri night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during
the strongest winds. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of
Hispaniola through the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant Swell
in the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N28W to 22N55W, then is a dissipating
stationary front to north of the Dominican Republic. Fresh to
strong W winds are observed behind the front to 60W north of 29N.
Front bisects the subtropical ridge, anchored by two 1021 mb high
pressure centers near 26N60W and 24N30W.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad ridging will prevail through
the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds N of 29N and E of
60W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will
gradually subside from W to E through the end of the week.

$$
Christensen
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