[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130433
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters extending from a gale centered off the Canadian
Maritimes. Seas 12 to 18 ft will sweep eastward across the waters
north of 25N between 35W and 65W through mid week, then will
diminish in areal extent and shift northeast of the discussion
area through late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1021 mb high pressure northeast of the
Bahamas is supporting strong to gale-force winds across the
south- central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia
are providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt winds
near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the
night time hours. Associated seas are likely around 13 ft
currently. Winds will pulse to gale force each night through Fri
night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W to 01N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 01N20W to 04S35W. Clusters of moderate to
isolated strong convection are observed from 01N to 03N between
18W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Buoy observations show generally light to gentle breezes and 1 to
3 ft seas across the basin this evening, although moderate NW
winds are likely off the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula
associated with a weak trough over the coast. No significant
weather is evident at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through
the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail through Wed morning, then winds will increase to
moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the basin through
Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse near and to
the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early morning
hours due to local effects. A cold front may move into the NW
Gulf by the end of the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Trade winds remain active across the southern Caribbean between
1007 mb low pressure over northwest Colombia, and 1022 mb high
pressure centered northeast of the Bahamas. A ship observation
off the Guajira peninsula of Colombia indicate near- gale NW
winds. This is a good indication winds are reaching at least
minimal gale strength farther to the southwest off the coast of
Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla. An earlier altimeter
satellite pass indicated seas of 8 to 9 ft off Santa Marta,
Colombia, and seas to 10 ft are likely currently in the area of
gale force winds. Fresh to strong winds are active elsewhere over
the south- central Caribbean. Fresh NE winds are likely ongoing
over the Windward Passage, and moderate to fresh trade winds are
noted elsewhere across the basin with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for
gentle breezes over the northwest Caribbean with 2 to 4 ft seas.
No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident at this
time.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds
off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri night.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will pulse
to fresh to locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward
Passage, and S of Hispaniola mid week through the upcoming
weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant
Swell in the western and central Atlantic.

The tail end of a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N39W
20N62W, in between two 1021 mb high pressure areas centered near
28N71W and 21N30W. Fresh to strong S to SW winds follow the front
north of 29N as far west as 65W. Fresh NE winds are also evident
between Hispaniola and the southern Bahamas, including the
entrances to the Windward Passage. In addition to the swell
described in the Special Features section, combined seas of 8 to
12 ft primarily in NW swell also follow the front east of 70W.
Farther east, a second front extends from near Madeira to 28N23W.
Fresh SW winds are evident just ahead of this front, and 8 to 9 ft
combined seas follow the front in NW swell. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
become stationary just north of the Greater Antilles, where it
will dissipate by Thu. Fresh to strong winds north of 29N and east
of 65W will diminish by Thu. Rough to very rough seas will
accompany the front, gradually subsiding from west to east
through the end of the week. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front and dominate the Atlantic the end of the week through
the upcoming weekend.

$$
Christensen
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