[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121642
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large N to NW swell is propagating across the western and central
Atlantic waters extending from a storm-force low near Atlantic
Canada. Seas greater than 12 ft cover the waters N of a line from
31N68W to 26N66W to 30N48W, currently peaking around 19 ft. The
swath of combined seas in excess of 12 ft could reach as far south
as 24N between 35W and 60W on Wed, then will diminish in areal
extent and shift northeast of the discussion area through late
Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia and a 1023 mb high pressure off the coast of NE
Florida is supporting strong to gale-force winds across the south-
central Caribbean. Local effects off the coast of Colombia are
providing an additional influence to support 30 to 35 kt winds
near the coast between Cartagena and Barranquilla during the night
time hours. Associated seas are likely around 12 ft currently.
Winds will pulse to gale force each night through Fri night.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic over the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 04S37W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from
02S to 07N between 06W and 22W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Quiet weather continues across the Gulf of Mexico supported by
surface high pressure centered over the southeastern U.S. and the
western Atlantic. No organized shower activity is noted across the
region and light east to southeast winds are occurring across the
entire Gulf. Consequently, seas are generally low in the 2-4 ft
range, highest over the southwestern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
Gulf waters through the week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas will prevail through Wed, then winds will
increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the majority of the
basin Thu through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong winds will
pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and
early morning hours due to local effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

No significant shower activity is occurring across the Caribbean
region today, and the quiet weather is supported by abundant dry
air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. Besides for
the gale-force winds mentioned above, fresh to strong trade winds
are occurring over the south-central Caribbean due to the
pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the north of
the area and low pressure over Colombia. Seas are highest in the
gale warning area, but are moderate elsewhere across the central
and southwestern Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure building N of the area will
support fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean.
Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force at night through Fri
night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, increasing
to fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the approach to the
Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola mid week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about a Significant
Swell in the western and central Atlantic.

The tail end of a cold front enters the discussion area at 31N 44W
and extends southwestward to eastern Cuba. A narrow band of
showers accompanies the front. Fresh to strong westerlies winds
are near the front and on the south side of a strong low pressure
system north of 28N between 35W and 65W. Seas are very rough over
a large portion of the subtropical central and western Atlantic in
northerly swell, originating from a storm-force low near Atlantic
Canada. The remainder of the Atlantic basin is quiet supported by
surface high pressure and dry air aloft. Seas are rough north of
27N between 20W and 45W due to swell from another low north of the
region. Otherwise, winds and seas are moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will continue to move
eastward across the forecast waters through Wed while becoming
stationary just N of the Greater Antilles. The front is forecast
to dissipate over the same area on Thu. Strong to near-gale force
winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front today,
mainly north of 27N. Winds will diminish from west to east into
mid week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.
Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid
week due to associated northerly swell.

$$
Cangialosi
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