[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large, long-period N swell produced by earlier storm-force winds
associated with a low at the north-central Atlantic continue to
propagate south of 31N. Seas are peaking in the 12 to 15 ft range
north of 28N between 40W and 55W. The 12 ft seas south of 31N with
this swell will start to subside this morning, and decrease below
12 ft by this evening.

A developing storm system in the NW Atlantic has generated a large
NW swell over the western Atlantic. Seas greater than 12 ft
associated with this swell will pass S of 31N this morning. Seas
north of 27N between 57W and 74W will increase steadily and reach
12 to 20 ft by this evening. These high to very high seas will
then shift southeastward to near 25N between 50W and 70W Tuesday
morning, and to near 23N between 40W and 62W Wednesday morning.
After midweek, these seas will gradually subside while shifting
eastward. Seas associated with this swell will subside below 12 ft
S of 31N by late Fri.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
High pressure will build N of the area in the wake of the cold
front in the western Atlantic today. The pressure gradient will
tighten between this area of building high pressure and low
pressure over Colombia, supporting strong to near- gale NE winds
off the northwestern Colombia coast most of this week. These winds
will pulse to gale- force during the nighttime and early morning
hours through Wednesday morning. Seas will peak between 10 and 12
ft during the period of gale force winds.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to
02S34W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N
between 20W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh
winds are noted E of 90W, with gentle to moderate winds W of 90W.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range near the Yucatan Channel, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf of
Mexico through the week. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds
will prevail across the Gulf waters.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming gale
warning.

Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere S of 15N. N of 15N, gentle
winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the south central
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build N of the area,
supporting fresh to strong winds across the south central
Caribbean. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale- force tonight
and Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a significant
swell event.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to W Cuba. Fresh to strong winds
prevail N of 28N within 210 nm east of the front, and N of 28N W
of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere W of the
front. E of the front, a 1018 mb high pressure center is near
25N57W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high
center. Farther east, a trough extends from 31N39W to 26N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough.
Fresh to strong winds are N of 30N within 120 nm east of the
trough. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere
across the discussion waters. Aside from the area of 12 ft seas,
seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 29N80W to
25N57W to 30N32W. Seas greater than 8 ft are also found N of 22N
and E of 29W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the northern portion of the front will
continue moving to the east of the region Tue, leaving a
weakening front extending to the Windward Passage by early Tue.
Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will
accompany the front mainly north of 24N, through the early part
of the week. Winds will diminish from west to east into mid week
as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Combined seas in
excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid week due to
associated northerly swell.

$$
AL
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