[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Anticipated large and long-period N swell is to the north of
29N60W 30N46W. The maximum sea heights is 16 feet later today,
from 29N northward between 43W and 60W. The same high sea heights
are expected to move southeastward, from 27N northward between
39W and 55W by this morning. This first round of swell will
continue to move more to the east, and decay. The sea heights also
are forecast to be less than 12 feet later on Monday in the
evening. A deepening frontal low pressure center is forecast to
move from the NE U.S.A. into the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Expected storm-force winds that will be related to this low
pressure center will generate even larger NW swell, to move
southward into the western Atlantic Ocean. The swell will be
moving to the south of 31N by the middle of the morning on
Monday. The sea heights that will be from 27N northward between
57W and 74W are going to increase steadily. The sea heights will
range from 12 feet to 20 feet by Monday evening. These very rough
to high seas will move southeastward, close to 25N between 47W
and 70W by noon on Tuesday, and to near 23N between 40W and 62W
by noon on Wednesday. These seas should subside gradually, while
continuing to move eastward, after the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING...

Gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are forecast to start
on Monday night/Tuesday morning, in the coastal waters of
Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. A strong high
pressure center will enter the Atlantic Ocean close to the
Georgia/Florida coast. The surface pressure gradient will tighten
enough, in order to be able to help to generate the gale-force
winds.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W, to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to
the Equator along 21W, to 05S28W, 02S30W, and 02S34W.
Precipitation: scattered strong is from 03N southward between 46W
and 53W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N
southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the Straits of Florida, to the
northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front becomes
stationary, and it continues to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Surface high pressure has been building in the
Gulf of Mexico, behind the front. A 1024 mb high pressure center
is in NW Louisiana. Broken to overcast high level clouds are to
the north of 22N97W 25N90W beyond 26N80W. Broken low level clouds,
and isolated moderate to locally strong precipitation, are from
24N southward.

Moderate to rough seas cover the area from the NE sections of the
Gulf into the SW corner of the area. The comparatively highest sea
heights of 8 feet are in the Yucatan Channel, and off the NW coast
of Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate seas are elsewhere, except for some
slight seas that are off the middle Texas Gulf coast. Fresh to
strong northerly winds are from 90W eastward. Moderate to fresh
NE winds are elsewhere.

A cold front in the SE Gulf will move S of the area tonight.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are
expected in the wake of the front tonight. Conditions will improve
Mon as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
gale-force wind warning for the coastal waters off Colombia, in
24 hours or so.

Broad surface low pressure is in the NW corner of the area. No
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the
satellite imagery.

Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds, and moderate seas, are
from 16N southward between 64W and 80W. Slight to moderate seas
are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere
between 70W and 80W. Slight seas are from 80W westward. Moderate
to fresh E to NE winds are elsewhere from Jamaica southward from
84W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended
at 11/0000 UTC, are: 0.29 in Guadeloupe. This information is from
the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

High pressure NE of the area combined with low pressure over
Colombia will support a small area of fresh to strong over the
south-central Caribbean through early Mon. High pressure will
start to build N of the area Mon, bringing a slight increase in
coverage of the fresh to strong winds, and a pulsing of gale-force
winds Mon night and Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the
Yucatan Channel and western Cuba tonight.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
significant northerly swell event.

A cold front passes through 31N67W, to the NW Bahamas, beyond the
Straits of Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong is to the north of the line that runs from 31N60W to Andros
Island in the Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds are between 58W
and the cold front from 25N northward. Fresh to strong NW winds
are to the northwest of the cold front. Moderate to rough seas are
to the northwest of the cold front. Moderate seas are from 70W
westward, except for the slight seas that are close to the
Bahamas.

A dissipating cold front is passing through 31N41W to 27N50W. A
surface trough is along 29N43W 22N53W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong, is
from 23N northward between 30W and 60W. A 1018 mb high pressure
center is near 24N59W. Fresh to strong NW winds are to the
northwest of the dissipating cold front. Strong or faster
southerly winds are from 29N northward between 30W and 40W.

Rough to very rough seas are from 24N northward from 25W
eastward. Moderate to rough seas are between 20W and 40W. Moderate
seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly moderate
to some fresh NE winds are to the south of the line 19N67W
19N54W 20N40W 26N36W 27N15W.

A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits.
The northern portion of the front will continue moving to the east
of the region Tue, leaving a weakening front extending to the
Windward Passage by early Tue. Strong to near- gale force winds
and rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north
of 24N, through the early part of the week. Winds will diminish
from west to east into mid week as high pressure builds in the
wake of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east
of 70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell.

$$
mt/al
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