[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101800
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large, long-period N swell produced by earlier storm-force winds
associated with a low at the north-central Atlantic has
propagated south of 31N. Seas will build higher and reach 12 to 16
ft north of 29N between 43W and 58W by late this afternoon. Then
these seas are expected to spread southeastward to near 27N
between 39W and 55W by early Mon morning. As this first set of
swell moves farther eastward and decays, seas at the central
Atlantic will subside below 12 ft by Monday evening.

A deepening frontal low is exiting into the northwestern Atlantic
from the northeastern US. Expected storm-force winds related to
this low will generate even larger NW swell southward across the
western Atlantic, passing 31N by mid Monday morning. Seas north
of 27N between 57W and 74W are going to rise steadily and reach 12
to 20 ft by Monday evening. These high to very high seas will then
shift southeastward to near 25N between 47W and 70W by noon
Tuesday, and to near 23N between 40W and 62W by noon Wednesday.
After midweek, these seas should gradually subside while continue
shifting eastward.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
A strong high pressure is forecast to exit the Georgia and
northeastern Florida coast on Monday. Tight gradient between this
high and the Colombia Low is anticipated to produce strong to
near- gale NE winds off the northwestern Colombia coast most of
this week. These winds will pulse to gale-force during the
nighttime and early morning hours through Wednesday morning. Seas
under the strongest winds will peak between 10 and 12 ft.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 08N17W. An
ITCZ stretches southwestward from 03N18W to 01S30W, then turns
northwestward to 00N43W. Scattered showers are seen south of the
trough from 03N to 05N between 11W and 17W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Fort Meyers, Florida to the western
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of this front.
Convergent northerly winds behind the front are triggering
scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present offshore of Veracruz,
Mexico. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are
evident behind the front. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and
seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the
Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits.

For the forecast, the front will reach from the Florida Straits
to the Yucatan Channel this afternoon before stalling and
dissipating over the Yucatan Channel Mon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front. Conditions will improve early this week as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section about an upcoming gale
warning.

Widely scattered trade-wind showers are seen near the Lesser
Antilles. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft are noted off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela, and
near the ABC Islands. Gentle NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are
present at the northwestern and southwestern basin, including near
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas
at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, high pressure northeast of the area combined
with the Colombian Low will support a small area of fresh to
strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early Mon.
High pressure will start to build eastward from the Georgia and
northeastern Florida coast on Mon, causing a slight increase in
coverage of the fresh to strong winds. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the
Yucatan Channel and western Cuba this afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
significant northerly swell.

A cold front extends southwestward from the northwestern Atlantic
across 31N77W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are found near and up to 70 nm
southeast of the front. Another modest cold front curves
southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N45W to
27N54W, then turns northwestward as a stationary/warm front to
beyond 31N at 64W. Patchy showers are seen up to 60 nm along
either side of this boundary. At the central Atlantic, a surface
trough is near 23N47W. Convergent southerly winds east of this
feature are coupling with strong divergent flow aloft to generate
scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 40W and 45W.
Widely scattered showers and thick cirrus are present farther east
north of 15N between 30W and 40W. Convergent trade winds are
inducing scattered moderate convection north of Brazil from 01N to
03N between 43W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are noted
behind the first cold front. Fresh southerly winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas in moderate to large northerly swell exist at the central
Atlantic north of 26N between 38W and 44W. Gentle to moderate NNE
to E to SSW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate north of 20N
between 44W and 70W/cold front. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to
moderate NNE to E to SE winds and 8 to 12 ft seas in large
northerly swell are found north of 20N between the Africa coast
and 38W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE
winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found from 10N to 20N between the
central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N
to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate E
to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present. Gentle to moderate NE
and monsoonal winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed swells prevail
for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front off the Florida coast
will reach from Bermuda to western Cuba tonight. The portion of
the front north of 22N will continue moving eastward across the
region Tue, leaving a weakening stationary front extending to the
Windward Passage by early Tue. Strong to near-gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will accompany the front mainly north of
24N, through the early part of the week. Winds will diminish from
west to east into midweek as high pressure builds in the wake of
the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W
through midweek due to associated northerly swell.

$$

Chan
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