[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large, long-period N swell produced by a storm force low N of the
area near 41N51W has propagated into the discussion waters. Seas
greater than 12 ft will enter the waters later this morning N of
29N between 50W and 60W. The 12 ft or greater seas will shift SE
today, covering the waters N of 27N between 40W and 55W later
tonight before starting to gradually subside below 12 ft. By Mon
night, seas associated with this swell will subside below 12 ft
over the discussion waters. Seas will peak near 15 ft tonight. A
second set of NW to N swell will be generated over the western
Atlantic by a developing storm force low. Seas greater than 12 ft
associated with this swell will enter the western Atlantic waters
tonight. The seas greater than 12 ft will then propagate SE and
sweep across the waters N of 24N through the week. Seas with this
swell will peak near 20 ft over the waters N of 30N between 60W
and 65W Mon night, with the 20 ft seas shifting eastward over the
waters N of 30N to near 45W Wed night.

Caribbean Gale Warning:
High pressure will build in the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake
of a cold front Monday. The pressure gradient between this area of
high pressure building N of the area and low pressure over
Colombia will support pulsing of gale- force winds Mon night and
Tue night. Seas will peak near 12 ft during the period of gale-
force winds.

Mariners need to monitor these developing situations and plan
their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center
at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains Liberia
near 06N11W to near 00N14W. The ITCZ continues from 00N14W to
04S37W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted
S of 03N between 25W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Central Florida to the Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to locally strong winds prevail W of the front, with light
to gentle winds E of the front. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range N of
the front and W of 90W, and 5-7 ft N of the front and E of 90W. E
of the front, seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the front will reach from S Florida to the
Yucatan Channel today before stalling and dissipating over the
Yucatan Channel Mon. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate
to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Conditions
will improve early this week as high pressure builds in the wake
of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on an upcoming
gale warning N of Colombia.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean
with moderate to fresh winds over the north central and eastern
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the south central
Caribbean, and 5-6 ft over the north central Caribbean. Elsewhere,
seas of 2-4 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with low
pressure over Colombia will support a small area of fresh to
strong over the south- central Caribbean through early Mon. High
pressure will start to build N of the area Mon, bringing a
slight increase in coverage of the fresh to strong winds, and a
pulsing of gale-force winds Mon night and Tue night. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front
will approach the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late today.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a
significant swell event.

A cold front has just moved off the northeast Florida coast. Fresh
to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft are within 210 nm SE of the
front. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also
noted within 210 nm SE of the front. Farther east, a cold front
extends from 31N46W to 27N57W, becoming stationary to near 31N68W.
Fresh to locally strong winds are within 210 nm east of the front
N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds are N of the front. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm east
of the front and N of 30N. SE of the front, a surface trough
extends from 30N43W to 17N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 240 nm east of the trough N of 20N, and 60 nm W of the
front N of 23N. Moderate winds are within 240 nm east of the
trough. Farther east, high pressure is centered near 32N29N.
Light to gentle winds are over the discussion waters in the
vicinity of the high. Winds to the south of the high are in the
moderate to fresh range, generally S of 25N and E of 45W. Gentle
winds are noted elsewhere. NE swell is supporting seas in the 8-9
ft range S of 20N and E of 42W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft
range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from Bermuda to
western Cuba tonight. The portion of the front north of 22N will
continue to the east of the region Tue, leaving a weakening
stationary front extending to the Windward Passage by early Tue.
Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will
accompany the front mainly north of 24N, through the early part
of the week. Winds will diminish from west to east into mid week
as high pressure builds in the wake of the front. Combined seas in
excess of 8 ft may linger east of 70W through mid week due to
associated northerly swell.

$$
AL
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