[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large, long-period N swell produced by gale to strong-gale winds
associated with a 996 mb low pressure at the north-central
Atlantic will move southward tonight through Sunday. This swell is
going to create seas of 12 to 14 ft in the central Atlantic north
of 27N between 36W and 57W from Sunday morning through late
Monday morning. By Monday morning, a deep frontal low pressure
system is expected to exit into the northwestern Atlantic near
Nova Scotia. This system is forecast to produce even larger, long-
period NW swell toward the western Atlantic, then spread into the
central Atlantic by Wednesday. Anticipate seas to build steadily
and reach 12 to 19 ft north of 27N between 53W and 72W by late
Monday afternoon. These very rough to high seas will shift
southeastward to north of 25N between 42W and 64W by Wednesday
morning.

Mariners need to monitor this developing situation and plan their
route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to near
02N17W where the ITCZ continues westward to 01S30W to 00N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ
between 20W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02S to
09S between 11W and 29W, and from 02N to 04S W of 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Cape San Blas, Florida to Tampico,
Mexico. The front is followed by moderate to fresh N to NW winds
over the northern Gulf offshore waters and fresh to strong N winds
S of 26N over the SW basin. Seas are moderate over the NE Gulf
and rough with a peak of 10 ft S of 27N in the eastern half of
the Gulf. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front and
over the offshore waters between the Florida Big Bend and and
Tampa Bay.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from Port Charlotte,
Florida to Merida, Mexico by Sun morning before stalling and
dissipating over the Yucatan Channel Mon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front. Conditions will improve early next week as high
pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A modest 1018 mb high north of Puerto Rico near 25N64W continues
to sustain a trade-wind pattern for the entire basin. Over the
eastern and central Caribbean, winds are moderate to fresh, except
fresh to strong over the south-central offshores. Fresh to strong
easterly winds are also in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are slight
to moderate basin-wide, except Colombia where seas are 7-8 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with low
pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through
midweek, reaching near-gale off Colombia Mon night. Fresh to
locally strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern
Caribbean through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. Otheriwse, a weakening cold front will approach the
Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about an
upcoming Significant Swell Event for the western and central
Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 29N65W where it transitions to
a stationary front to 29N69W and then into a warm front to 31N74W.
South of the frontal boundary, a 1018 mb center of high pressure
is centered near 25N64W. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are
ongoing off the NE coast of Florida associated with an approaching
cold front, currently over the Gulf of Mexico. The gradient
between the ridge and the approching front is supporting fresh to
locally strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas with 9 ft peak
over the NW offshore waters N of 27N. Moderate to fresh trade
winds are in the Great Bahama Bank and N of Hispaniola while light
to gentle variable winds are ongoing elsewhere in the SW N
Atlantic waters. Surface ridging extending from a 1023 mb high SW
of the Azores Islands, covers the eastern subtropical Atlantic
waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 12N
and E of 30N. Also, moderate to fresh southerly winds are ongoing
in the central subtropical waters N of 25N between 41W and 49W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will continue to move
to the east of the area through tonight. Another cold front will
move off the northeast Florida coast tonight and reach from
Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night. The portion of the front north
of 22N will continue to the east of the region Tue, leaving a
weakening stationary front extending to the Windward Passage by
early Tue. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough
seas will accompany the front mainly north of 24N, through the
early part of the week. Winds will diminish from west to east into
mid week as high pressure builds over the western Gulf in the
wake of the front. Combined seas in excess of 8 ft may linger east
of 70W through mid week due to associated northerly swell.

$$
Ramos
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